How did I miss this story? Apparently it came out in October, so I guess I was a bit preoccupied with the election circus. I assume it flew under the radar for a lot of other people too. Here it is: on the scale of just a few decades, the combination of climate change and deforestation will likely result in the conversion of tropical rainforest to grassland in the Amazon. This article in The Guardian summarizes a peer reviewed study and aptly explains why/how this will happen. (Side note: The Guardian is one of my favorite sources for environmental stories. Of course, they’re all depressing stories that further chip away at any optimism I have left, but they are well done and it’s one of the few media outlets that seem to really focus on climate issues.)

I can’t say I’m surprised by this study (here’s a link to the original publication) but it’s deeply upsetting nonetheless. Tropical rainforests are often referred to as the “earth’s lungs”. While ⅔ of our oxygen actually comes from microorganisms in the ocean, tropical rainforests contribute a significant amount of oxygen to the atmosphere (20%) and, maybe more importantly, store carbon out of the atmosphere in all those huge, beautiful old trees. What does the loss of the Amazon rainforest mean for the planet? Many things, including 

• A release of up to 140 billion tons of carbon to the atmosphere (Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies). 
• A loss of 10% of the earth’s total biodiversity (25% of the terrestrial biodiversity), including thousands of plants that produce compounds of medicinal value  (World Wildlife Federation).
• A loss of precipitation to surrounding areas (this means reduced agriculture in South America.

(Note: Thomas Lovejoy, prominent ecologist, gave an informative interview on some of the ramifications of biodiversity loss and precipitation changes. Read that here.)

Let’s start with the carbon emissions. Since the start of the Industrial Revolution in the 1700s, approximately 375 billion tons of carbon dioxide have been emitted from human activities (World Meteorological Society). This has contributed to the warming of the planet and resulting increases in extreme weather (droughts, wildfires, hurricanes) and sea level rise. Note that 140 billion tons of carbon would likely enter the atmosphere with the conversion of rainforest to grassland. That’s nearly 40% of all the carbon that we have already contributed to the atmosphere but in a fraction of the time it took to get to this point. We thought we were already seeing rapid change. Buckle up everybody. 

Let’s move on to the projected biodiversity loss. I’ve covered the importance of biodiversity loss in an older post (May 14, 2019) so I won’t rehash here. But needless to say, the scope of biodiversity loss that we face with the loss of the rainforest is very worrisome. Think about the potential cancer treatments that could be found in plants that grow only in the rainforest. Think about all the colorful frogs, the fascinating primates, the leaf cutter ants, the gorgeously colored birds, the rare orchids, I could go on and on (obviously, 10% of earth’s total biodiversity likely = millions of species). All that genetic potential, all that beauty will be gone.  Let’s not forget all of the species that have yet to be discovered in the rainforest and all the indigenous people that live in and depend on the rainforests. 

Then there’s the trees themselves. The trees of the rainforest actually generate about 40% of the precipitation that falls there and in surrounding areas of South America. When the trees are gone and the rainfall with it, conflicts over water resources will increase and agricultural outputs will diminish. This is a recipe for mass migration. Millions of people will be displaced, likely to North America. If conservatives in this country are upset about the current immigrant situation, they are going to be beside themselves in a couple of decades. We haven’t seen anything yet.

So, what is to be done? Well, first and foremost we need to vastly reduce greenhouse gas emissions so that we don’t fulfill the “worst case scenario” predictions of the IPCC and other models. You know how to do that: eat a vegan diet, use less energy, buy local foods, advocate for legislative change, etc. All the things I’ve mentioned in previous posts. A plant-based/vegan diet (you can do it! It’s so easy and tasty and healthy!) not only reduces your carbon footprint, but your land footprint as well. In the Amazon, deforestation is driven primarily by animal agriculture (see also this article). A global reduction in the demand for beef would slow destruction of the rainforest. In addition, the Rainforest Alliance recommends some other daily actions that individuals can take. 

The other day, I saw a story on CNN that the current administration has approved leasing plans for oil drilling in the Coastal Plain area of Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR). Rather than just the Area 1002 (roughly 2000 acres) that was set aside for potential oil exploration when the refuge was established, it seems like the whole Coastal Plain area (1.5 million acres) will be up for grabs. This will be devastating for wildlife. For example, there is a caribou herd that relies on the Coastal Plain area for their calving and summer feeding grounds. This decision to open the whole area to drilling will result in reductions in the caribou population and the predators and indigenous peoples that rely on the caribou. The World Wildlife Fund has a quick summary of the reasons we shouldn’t allow drilling in ANWR and the Center for American Progress has a summary of why we shouldn’t drill from energy and economy standpoints. The Gwich’in people (the original inhabitants of the land) also advocate strongly against drilling. One last link for you, Scientific American has a story on the environmental impact statement prepared by the government. By their own emission, drilling will contribute to extinctions of wildlife in the refuge. The Arctic ecosystem is already severely impacted by global warming. Do we have to double down on human impacts with more drilling? This is the time to move away from fossil fuels, not try to find more sources of them.
          Now for some rare good news, on July 6 a federal judge ordered a shutdown of construction and operations on the Dakota Access Pipeline for a full environmental and cultural impacts review. This has been a four-year legal battle between the Standing Rock and Cheyenne River Sioux tribes and the US Army Corps of Engineers and Dakota Access, LLC. This press release from Earth Justice (the group representing the Sioux tribes) detailing the ruling and giving the history of the struggle. There are many issues with the Dakota Access Pipeline (and the similar Keystone Pipeline and Keystone XL) but I will just address the issues with what the pipelines are transporting and the fact that pipelines are prone to spills and other leakage.  
          These pipelines bring or are slated to bring tar sands oil from Canada down to refineries in the United States. Extraction and refinement of oil from tar sands results in 50% higher carbon dioxide emissions than conventional oil (see this brief explanation) and extensive habitat destruction (which is of course followed by massive biodiversity loss). If we rely on tar sands oil as our conventional sources of oil are rapidly depleted, we will accelerate and exacerbate global warming.​

These are unsettled times. In recent weeks I have discussed the "tragedy of the commons" concept with my environmental science class. Today on the morning news, one reporter was in a supermarket showing off the barren shelves. He noted that people should just buy what they need, not all the hand sanitizer or all the soap, because by buying more than you need for the time being, you are putting someone else at risk because they can't get their hands on sanitizer or soap. Tragedy of the commons, sort of. Definitely an "everyone for themselves" scenario playing out in the markets. 

People are panicking. This is a time for common sense, not panic. Practice social distancing. Cover your mouth when you cough or sneeze. Wash your hands thoroughly (get under those fingernails and in all the crevices!) and frequently with soap. [Simplified science note: most viruses, including COVID-19 are covered in a layer of lipids. These help the virus to stick to surfaces (think sticky oil on a pan). Scrubbing with soap breaks up that lipid layer so that viruses can be rinsed off your hands with water.] If you feel at all symptomatic or think you may have been exposed, stay at home and definitely stay away from your older relatives and friends, or people who have pre-existing conditions that put them at risk (cardiac issues, asthma, immune deficiencies, etc). 

Also remember to take care of your mental health. Keep yourself busy and on a schedule. Read, maybe enjoy some Netflix or similar, exercise, and eat healthy. For exercise, get outside for a walk. Feel the sunshine on your face, it makes a big difference. Many fitness studios are offering virtual classes. I've got a class scheduled for every day this week. It will be nice to see the people I usually see and will take my mind off being stuck at home during the day by myself for three weeks. I'm going to schedule some virtual lunches with friends and colleagues. Lastly, turn the news off. Maybe watch a bit in the morning, but you know it's just going to be the same stress-inducing news over and over all day. That can have a big impact on your psyche. 

On a science note, here's a video on how and why novel viruses (COVID-19, SARS) will likely  continue to originate in China. With population growth and climate change (see "They're coming" post 8/2/19), we can expect more pandemics in the future. Here are a couple of articles that touch on this: Scientific American and Vox. 

A couple of headlines caught my eye this morning, here's one:

I'll address the human tragedy later. The stories about koalas and kangaroos are really tugging at my heart strings. On one island alone (Kangaroo Island), it's estimated that 30,000 koalas have died, and many others are suffering from burns. This video and this one are just a couple of the many sad videos showing the plight of the wildlife. The article that goes with the headline above notes that koalas are not at risk of extinction from these fires, but many other species that are endemic to Australia and some of its unique habitats are. These are organisms that live no where else in the world. 
          The conservative Australian government is just now acknowledging that climate change has created the conditions that are fueling these fires. Extended drought and extreme heat are prolonging and intensifying fire seasons around the world, Australia is just the most recent tragic example. In the coming decades, there will be some places in the world that will become unlivable because of fires, heat, and drought. People who live in those places now are going to have to move. Combine those populations with the ones that will have to move away from coastlines, and the migration numbers become staggering and almost unbelievable. Not to mention the economic disaster that will unfold for countries that have to support domestic and international refugees and the food shortages that will get increasingly worse. These fires should be a major wake up call for the Australian government and the world that the time is now to take drastic action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. I'm not going to hold my breath though. The question is, how many tragedies will it take? In the meantime, I'm going to continue to do all I can do in my own life and encourage others to do the same. 

My hope is that you read the title of this blog post as Oprah would when she is announcing something she is excited about. If you didn't, do that now before reading any further.
     OK, you might know at this point that I hate plastics and I love science. The hating plastics comes through rather bluntly, so that is obvious, but the loving science may be a bit more subtly conveyed with the use of facts and figures. Anyways, one of my colleagues recently sent me a link to a story of the teenager that won the grand prize at this year's Google Science Fair. He found a way to bind up microplastics in the ocean with iron compounds and then remove the mixtures with magnets. SCI-ENCE!
     I encourage you to read the story. There is still work to do before we go ahead and throw a bunch of ferrous compounds into the ocean and pass giant magnets over it (such as making sure that the ferrous compounds don't do their own damage in the ocean, you don't want to try to solve one problem and then create another....I could talk for days about examples of that!), but I love that a young person is working on tackling this problem using basic principles he learned in high school chemistry. What I love even more is the last line of the article. You'll have to read it for yourself. But if we could get all the young people together on that sentiment, we'd really be able to make some progress.

In what has now become a film classic, the world was introduced to the fascinating lives of emperor penguins. Who doesn't love watching penguins waddle along, heads bobbing side to side with the effort? I love that they look like the longest receiving line at a black tie event, that image being shattered by the ones that get tired of marching and slide along on their bellies for awhile. Then, as if the feat of marching 60-100 miles on what might be some of the shortest legs per body size was not enough, the females turn around after passing an egg off to the males, marching back 60-100 miles while the males endure the burnt of an Antarctic winter by walking around in a massive group huddle for months all while holding their egg on top of their feet. Emperor penguin parents might be the most dedicated in the world. 
     Now emperor penguins appear to be marching towards extinction. A recent study by a scientist at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute predicts that if climate change continues on the current track, these magnificent birds (which have persisted as a species for approximately 60 million years, p.s. way longer than modern humans have been around, 300 times longer to be exact-ish) could disappear forever by the end of this century. Most people will not be impacted by the loss of penguins. They'll be sad for a bit because penguins are so cute and Happy Feet etc., but they have other more pressing concerns. Of course, penguins don't impact our daily lives, but I believe strongly we have to question the morality of allowing what will likely be a mass extinction event this century, because, newsflash, emperor penguins are not the only species at high risk due to climate change (see my post from 5/14/19 "Biodiversity crisis"). For all those out there who champion the preservation of life, don't you think that should include all life, not just human life?
     The good news of course is that the United States is fully committed to the Paris Agreement, making great strides at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, encouraging the development of renewable energy technologies...oh wait, that was a dream I had. In real life, the democracy-undermining, science-denying White House inhabitants  started the process of removing our country from the Paris Agreement this week. Of course this is just a formality, they have been wrecking the environment in every way possible since day one of this administration (remember this deregulation tracker?). Now is the time for drastic actions, not "business as usual", and certainly not the time for rolling back the little progress that had been made. I reiterate that every person should do as much as she or he can on a personal level, plus everyone should be encouraging (or even nagging) their elected officials to do everything they can to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Skim through these blog entries for ideas of personal actions you can take. You need to get fired up, because our planet is on fire.

I also put a bin in my classroom for tissues and paper towels. Right next to the tissue box and hand sanitizer. I think it’s really important to model sustainable behaviors for students. Eventually my hope is that these behaviors become routine for them. ​

Today I did my weekly grocery run and as usual brought a bunch of reusable produce bags. Two of them I filled with brown rice and pistachios from the bulk bins. I wrote in my 7/2 entry that I've started to buy some things in bulk, but didn't elaborate. I've been happy to find that two local groceries (I'm not going to name drop here because I don't necessarily want to advertise for anyone) carry all the grains I like in bulk (and organic!) plus lots of nuts, some raw, some roasted, and nutritional yeast (which I use a lot in "cheese" sauces and on salads for the B vitamins). As a vegan, I eat a fair amount of whole grains, probably at least a serving a day, so that packaging was adding up. Buying in bulk has been easy and I've been reusing glass jars to store the grains etc. in. So it feels like a double win. I also found some glass food storage jars at my local thrift shop, so there has been no need to go and buy new stuff. I'm feeling good about this. It's definitely an ingrained practice at this point (no pun intended).

Side note: In a couple of those other reusable produce bags I put some locally grown organic kale and local peaches. The biggest peaches ever! See picture below in my palm for scale. I love the summer for MANY reasons, but the variety of fresh, local produce is right up there near the top. Eating a plant-based diet is best for the planet of course but buying local stuff is another piece of the solution so that transportation-related pollution is reduced.