The grasslands formerly known as the Amazon rainforest

How did I miss this story? Apparently it came out in October, so I guess I was a bit preoccupied with the election circus. I assume it flew under the radar for a lot of other people too. Here it is: on the scale of just a few decades, the combination of climate change and deforestation will likely result in the conversion of tropical rainforest to grassland in the Amazon. This article in The Guardian summarizes a peer reviewed study and aptly explains why/how this will happen. (Side note: The Guardian is one of my favorite sources for environmental stories. Of course, they’re all depressing stories that further chip away at any optimism I have left, but they are well done and it’s one of the few media outlets that seem to really focus on climate issues.)

I can’t say I’m surprised by this study (here’s a link to the original publication) but it’s deeply upsetting nonetheless. Tropical rainforests are often referred to as the “earth’s lungs”. While ⅔ of our oxygen actually comes from microorganisms in the ocean, tropical rainforests contribute a significant amount of oxygen to the atmosphere (20%) and, maybe more importantly, store carbon out of the atmosphere in all those huge, beautiful old trees. What does the loss of the Amazon rainforest mean for the planet? Many things, including 

• A release of up to 140 billion tons of carbon to the atmosphere (Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies). 
• A loss of 10% of the earth’s total biodiversity (25% of the terrestrial biodiversity), including thousands of plants that produce compounds of medicinal value  (World Wildlife Federation).
• A loss of precipitation to surrounding areas (this means reduced agriculture in South America.

(Note: Thomas Lovejoy, prominent ecologist, gave an informative interview on some of the ramifications of biodiversity loss and precipitation changes. Read that here.)

Let’s start with the carbon emissions. Since the start of the Industrial Revolution in the 1700s, approximately 375 billion tons of carbon dioxide have been emitted from human activities (World Meteorological Society). This has contributed to the warming of the planet and resulting increases in extreme weather (droughts, wildfires, hurricanes) and sea level rise. Note that 140 billion tons of carbon would likely enter the atmosphere with the conversion of rainforest to grassland. That’s nearly 40% of all the carbon that we have already contributed to the atmosphere but in a fraction of the time it took to get to this point. We thought we were already seeing rapid change. Buckle up everybody. 

Let’s move on to the projected biodiversity loss. I’ve covered the importance of biodiversity loss in an older post (May 14, 2019) so I won’t rehash here. But needless to say, the scope of biodiversity loss that we face with the loss of the rainforest is very worrisome. Think about the potential cancer treatments that could be found in plants that grow only in the rainforest. Think about all the colorful frogs, the fascinating primates, the leaf cutter ants, the gorgeously colored birds, the rare orchids, I could go on and on (obviously, 10% of earth’s total biodiversity likely = millions of species). All that genetic potential, all that beauty will be gone.  Let’s not forget all of the species that have yet to be discovered in the rainforest and all the indigenous people that live in and depend on the rainforests. 

Then there’s the trees themselves. The trees of the rainforest actually generate about 40% of the precipitation that falls there and in surrounding areas of South America. When the trees are gone and the rainfall with it, conflicts over water resources will increase and agricultural outputs will diminish. This is a recipe for mass migration. Millions of people will be displaced, likely to North America. If conservatives in this country are upset about the current immigrant situation, they are going to be beside themselves in a couple of decades. We haven’t seen anything yet.

So, what is to be done? Well, first and foremost we need to vastly reduce greenhouse gas emissions so that we don’t fulfill the “worst case scenario” predictions of the IPCC and other models. You know how to do that: eat a vegan diet, use less energy, buy local foods, advocate for legislative change, etc. All the things I’ve mentioned in previous posts. A plant-based/vegan diet (you can do it! It’s so easy and tasty and healthy!) not only reduces your carbon footprint, but your land footprint as well. In the Amazon, deforestation is driven primarily by animal agriculture (see also this article). A global reduction in the demand for beef would slow destruction of the rainforest. In addition, the Rainforest Alliance recommends some other daily actions that individuals can take.